Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 33.950015 36.703303 39.699458 43.225115 47.290672 51.869541 57.471374
2025-04-06 29.544364 33.158609 37.349552 42.648338 49.290416 57.517920 68.784781
2025-04-13 26.465733 30.369543 35.073601 41.297318 49.543523 60.465828 76.755224
2025-04-20 25.294121 29.623261 35.030505 42.504956 52.975007 67.857120 92.286342
2025-04-27 24.295782 28.936495 34.909472 43.483317 56.105407 75.273055 109.913074
2025-05-04 23.310911 28.148003 34.530320 43.989840 58.536099 82.005384 128.606808
2025-05-11 22.184267 27.067290 33.633405 43.610895 59.497703 86.452729 144.617571
2025-05-18 21.121226 25.990363 32.640915 42.960106 59.889309 89.922134 159.977392
2025-05-25 20.122803 24.935746 31.595196 42.111141 59.810032 92.465406 174.344352
2025-06-01 19.249383 24.003208 30.657855 41.335340 59.736389 94.976725 189.941779
2025-06-08 18.365618 23.010010 29.569284 40.223656 58.926685 95.826091 201.427539
2025-06-15 18.190794 23.011580 29.944328 41.495245 62.577807 106.958066 253.133503
2025-06-22 17.600416 22.404194 29.394562 41.239227 63.436041 112.341073 291.720318
2025-06-29 16.984181 21.732896 28.712040 40.707988 63.706501 116.473527 330.984359
2025-07-06 16.248459 20.853302 27.659449 39.454713 62.370739 116.232777 349.876079
2025-07-13 16.103364 20.840059 27.953865 40.575095 66.059288 130.452220 476.444264
2025-07-20 15.917881 20.754342 28.123409 41.481673 69.448598 145.341604 667.637631
2025-07-27 15.653494 20.534695 28.060718 41.950650 71.944124 158.697994 936.186235
2025-08-03 15.246203 20.078093 27.584662 41.599819 72.483341 165.768770 1198.889050
2025-08-10 14.816040 19.570269 26.999723 40.996971 72.340185 170.411631 1494.950565
2025-08-17 14.376068 19.032649 26.342279 40.209899 71.652235 172.823331 1807.594984
2025-08-24 13.971771 18.538401 25.738109 39.490010 71.053803 175.497013 2246.601074
2025-08-31 13.531118 17.974741 24.996679 38.457359 69.555442 174.030864 2520.209312